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   ICE sugar broken out of the falling wedge ... bullish trend to begin? or just an abberation to a prolonged consolidation?
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

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Trendprofiles
Technical Analysis
Pattern Characteristics Objective
Double top Bearish reversal , where the second head is accompanied with lower volumes. A pierce of the Neck line is a signal of the wea trend to resume Distance between the tops and neck line, projected down.
Double Bottom Bullish reversal, where the second bottom is accompanied with low volumes. A break out of the neck line can be considered as a valid break out to see a rally. Distance between the bottom and neck line projected upward
Tripple Top 3 consecitive tops occurring before a trend change is far superior to 2 tops. Distance between tops and neckline projected down
Triple bottom Like the double bottom the trend makes yet another round of consolidation giving a shape of a triple bottom. Distance between the bottom and neck line projected upward
Ascending triangle Triangles are low volume trends and the ascending triangle is generally a continuation of the prior trend. Maximum width of the triangle.
Decsending triangle The descending triangle is generally a continuation but may occur at the market tops to signal a reversal. Maximum width of the triangle.
Diamond reversal A rare pattern which has the potentials to lead a reversal or continuation in the trend. Maximum width of the Diamond.
Rising wedge As a relief rally in bear trend, this pattern indicates the recent highs are not easy to breached and hence the prior trend must continue. Maximum width of the wedges.
Falling wedge As a bull market correction, this pattern indicates the low during an uptrend are not easy to breach and hence the prior trend must continue. Maximum width of the wedges.
Head and shoulder Shoulder head shoulder is a combination of triple tops with the only difference being the middle top is higher than the other two tops. Volumes are lowest during the last shoulder formation and a breach of the neck line is a signal for bearish reversal. Length of the head to the neckline measured downwards.
Flag Flags are a short term congestions in a trend measuring to 1 week to 2 weeks and eventually giving way to the prior uptrend to resume. Pole of the flag measured from the point of break down/out.
Pennant As with the flags Pennants do form in a similar time frame and the formation is most likely a triangle. Pole of the penant measured from the point of break down/out.

Shoulder head Shoulder in Soybean

The chart pattern in soybean resembles Shoulder head shoulder with a fairly declined volumes to its right side of the shoulder. This pattern can slightly overshoot the text book for the fact that the mid may'12 highs were seen quite eager to get sold off. Blame it partially on the strong dollar strength prevailing at his time and that the trend seems overstretched to its fundamentals as well.

The objective: A break below the neck line (depending on the interpretation) of 1373 cents the trend can be potentially bearish towards 1325 cents.

Any trades possible?

Beware of the fact that the grain market is in its uptrend and soy for some reason lacks the liberty to ease from its rally. So, some move on the down side could provide opportunity, but not the "larger" opportunity.

 

Volume Divergence in Brent Crude oil

The Brent crude oil bottom of the early 2009 followed a classical way of bottoming out. After having fallen considerable from July 2008 onwards, the trend got sold off big way despite of deep oversold conditions.

Later while ther had been several positive divergent swings formed in the 14-Day RSI the volumes had been quite higher on every swing low.

So, what caused a final bottom?

Probably the last swing low was followed by a "More than usual" decline ( arrow pointed) in the volumes which made the fall less enthusiastic to follow through.

 


 

 
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