Contract Specs | ||
Basis Explained
Basis
A basis is a difference between cash-Futures, or in other words : Cash-Futures = basis. A complete cycle of hedge involves the following
The Futures and cash move in tandem to each other but, an inherent cost of carry is what makes the futures a bit more expensive than the cash market price. Therefore if cash market price today is X, the futures prices consist a carrying cost which makes the it(futures price) X+cost of carry. This cost of carry is the basis that is referred to, at the beginning of the contract. For example: A farmer enters into a contract in July to sell soybean in Sep, assume the cash and futures as cash at 360 cents, Sep futures at 375 cents and hence the basis stands at -15 cents(360-375). The process of hedge: Since the farmer is a seller of a commodity at a later date, he takes a short hedge that is selling futures for the value of his inventory to protect from price decline. In July assume cash is at 360 cents and assume farmer sells futures at "then" prevailing price of Sep soybean contract at 375 cents. So the hedge position is for July Cash reference 360 cents the Farmer is short Sep contract at 375 cents. Maturity: When the contract matures say, on sep when the farmer finally has to deliver soybeans against his contracts, the cash market prices “then” would obviously be function of existing cash market demand/supply situation. In Sep there could be 2 scenarios the farmer can see – a price drop – or a price rise. If price drops: The farmer has 2 situations again that the Cash market doesn’t drop the same way as the futures or On the other had If price rises the same kind of deviations in cash and Futures are possible for the various reasons prevailing in cash market at the time of contract maturity. To summarize all posible cases a brief description is given below.
The Farmer in this case is said to be “Basis Long”. A widening basis that is a higher cash market price compared to futures will help realize better selling price.
Sale or purchase price Fixation: Ultimately the Farmer has to make sure to not loose value of the produce and be exposed to a wild price swing. The final price realized would be Cash Price+gain/Loss from Futures.
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Currency | Centeral Bank Rate | Overright Rate |
AUD | 2.75% | |
NZD | 2.50% | |
EUR | 0.50% | 0.45% |
CAD | 1.00% | |
GBP | 0.50% | 0.48% |
USD | 0.25% | 0.12% |
Date | Event | Actual | Forecast |
Jul 30
|
USA Cons Confidence |
81.40 | |
Jul 31 |
USA Adv GDP Q/Q | 1.8% | |
Aug 02 |
USA NFP | 195K |