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   ICE sugar broken out of the falling wedge ... bullish trend to begin? or just an abberation to a prolonged consolidation?


Commodity Elliot Wave

The present Bear market in the sugar has erased more than 80% of the rally that took place from the May'2010 lows of 13.00 cents and still not showing any signals of a valid trend reversal. As for a short term recovery is concerned the elliotte wave count suggests, there are fair chances for a bottoming to take place between 17-15.50 cents which concludes a 3 intermediate of the A-Primary (part of double zig zag fall) of a cyclical wave 2. This recovery can see a much needed relief to the falling prices (to follow if prices bottom as expected) and as it is a  reactionary wave it is termed as B primary.

Caveats to recovery:

Since the commodity bear markets have taken its toll on commodities such as coffee ,sugar and copper, the underlying commodity pressure could remain intact. The price trend could still provide some opportunity on the upside but the (expected) B-Intermediate wave is much treacherous to trade and can consolidate most of the times than rally. It is here that the futures trading may become a matter of flipping a coin again and probably the options could come into rescue


Sugar prices have gone low on volatility and as such a combination of long or  short options is always a question of a planned risk profile.


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